Perspectiva económicas 2015
Precios petroleros relativamente bajos probablemente dominen la escena económica de Venezuela durante 2015.Una disminución de precios que se traduzca en 30,0% menos de ingresos en moneda extranjera va a tener efectos desfavorables sobre la economía. A diferencia de la prolongada recesión que se padeció entre 2009 y 2010, en esta ocasión el panorama económico luce más complicado. Contrario a aquella situación recesiva que fue sorteada con una mezcla de política fiscal y monetaria considerablemente expansiva, en esta coyuntura dado el grave cuadro inflacionario y la restricción de divisas luce improbable que la simple expansión fiscal sea suficiente para sacar la economía de la contracción. El riesgo es que la inflación se desborde.La disminución de los in gresos fiscales, el potencial financiamiento monetario del défi cit, reservas internacionales en el límite mínimo admisible, una amplia brecha cambiara como expresión de un control de cambio colapsa do, compromisos de pagos de deuda externa que exceden la capacidad de generación de ingresos, un sistema de precios relativos destruido, capacidades productivas averiadas por un control de precios disfuncional y la falta de un equipo económico coherente y carente de liderazgo, permi ten concluir que la crisis económica que se conformó en 2014 se extenderá a 2015.Ello se expresará en mayo res restricciones en el acceso a las divisas que pueden llevar a que el gobierno intente renegociar la deuda externa en vista de que no resulta via ble tener que cancelar 11.200 millones de dólares en servicio de la deuda externa en momentos en que se registra una caída vertical de los ingresos de divisas y la capacidad de fi nanciamiento está literalmente cerrada...
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